Calibrate & recalibrate

Calibrate & recalibrate
Photo by jules a. / Unsplash

Volatility, uncertainty, and risk are all necessary but not sufficient conditions for generating cash-plus returns from investments. Too many investors don’t want volatility, but want the price upside! Behavioural investing is equally as important as financial investing. Investing is both an ART and a SCIENCE.

An important workflow step within the art of investing includes constantly (re)calibrating today’s price with up-to-date, and importantly, broad (often conflicting) views of markets, economics, industries, and company-specific signals from the increasing noise generated by those wanting to sell you a product for a fee.

This means understanding the probabilities implied by the current price of future cash flows from owning those chosen securities. You don’t have to be precise. But rather, first calibrate if the price implies probable, plausible, possible, or, as history shows in peak turning points of cycles, almost impossible expectations about the future cash flows? From there, the universe of opportunities can be first dissected.

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