Macro
The Fog of war (uncertainty)
“The cockroach theorem is, in the final analysis, a theorem about measurement. A system that cannot accurately measure its own
Calibrate & recalibrate
Volatility, uncertainty, and risk are all necessary but not sufficient conditions for generating cash-plus returns from investments. Too many investors
All that glitters…
This update consolidates our thesis for owning GOLD exposures and our recommendations for portfolios into one place. Over recent years,
“Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
This note highlights many economic indicators that are flashing warning signs for history-aware investors. A thorough examination of history reveals
Hold the line… weigh the arguments.
Hold the line is a military idiomatic expression meaning to stand firm in your position despite pressure or challenges. One
Inching towards a new (world?) order
Like many based in the Southern Hemisphere, I have spent too many hours since January 21 not sleeping and keeping
!["Reading [data releases] without reflecting is like eating without digesting"](https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1535401325524-b2a6728f0573?crop=entropy&cs=tinysrgb&fit=max&fm=jpg&ixid=M3wxMTc3M3wwfDF8c2VhcmNofDQzfHxjb250ZW1wbGF0ZXxlbnwwfHx8fDE3MjgyNzI0MDN8MA&ixlib=rb-4.0.3&q=80&w=30)
"Reading [data releases] without reflecting is like eating without digesting"
The market rallied on the latest monthly US job data released on Friday. This note aims to put into context
Second-third-fourth order effects.
Listening or reading anything the legendary Dr Lacy Hunt says and writes reminds me of opening an encyclopaedia of economic
Volatility pre-empts risk, risk pre-empts opportunity.
(Northern) summer trading can be volatile with lower volume but when investors saw the ISM numbers last week, the Japanese
Where to Now, Part-2
Many aspects of markets and the economy have, in my view, all the characteristics of a slow moving train... wreck.