Macro
The Fog of war (uncertainty)
“The cockroach theorem is, in the final analysis, a theorem about measurement. A system that cannot accurately measure its own
Latest
Macro
The Fog of war (uncertainty)
“The cockroach theorem is, in the final analysis, a theorem about measurement. A system that cannot accurately measure its own
Macro
Calibrate & recalibrate
Volatility, uncertainty, and risk are all necessary but not sufficient conditions for generating cash-plus returns from investments. Too many investors
The Next Wave…
As was well-flagged over the past weeks by Repo market activity, the Active Treasury Issuance (ATI)* of government debt, combined
Macro
All that glitters…
This update consolidates our thesis for owning GOLD exposures and our recommendations for portfolios into one place. Over recent years,
Macro
“Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
This note highlights many economic indicators that are flashing warning signs for history-aware investors. A thorough examination of history reveals
A camel’s back waiting for a straw
This update is brought to you by Occam’s razor. * A myriad of market valuation metrics all point to a
Momentum gathering…
These last few weeks, marking the beginning of Summer holidays in the Northern Hemisphere, have seen several significant macro and
Hard Data -> Hard Assets
* The disconnect between financial market pricing and the incoming (and forward-looking) data on US employment, business capital expenditures, credit and