Hard Data -> Hard Assets

Hard Data -> Hard Assets
Photo by Adrien Antal / Unsplash

  • The disconnect between financial market pricing and the incoming (and forward-looking) data on US employment, business capital expenditures, credit and student loan delinquencies, and consumer and business expectations, as well as subsequent consumption, is widening.
    • In a sound-bite, equity markets are back to near their highs of February 2025, (credit spreads again near their lows) whilst economic and earnings data over the last four-five months are all consistent with what even the US Federal Reserve now also admit; slightly higher inflation, growth expectations grinding lower, and higher geopolitical and trade risks. That all feeds (negatively) into global trade, business, and consumer confidence, and then consumption.
  • It's not what you know, it's what you think you know that can hurt you…

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Australian Financial Services Licence No. 255291