Hard Data -> Hard Assets
15 min read
- The disconnect between financial market pricing and the incoming (and forward-looking) data on US employment, business capital expenditures, credit and student loan delinquencies, and consumer and business expectations, as well as subsequent consumption, is widening.
- In a sound-bite, equity markets are back to near their highs of February 2025, (credit spreads again near their lows) whilst economic and earnings data over the last four-five months are all consistent with what even the US Federal Reserve now also admit; slightly higher inflation, growth expectations grinding lower, and higher geopolitical and trade risks. That all feeds (negatively) into global trade, business, and consumer confidence, and then consumption.
- It's not what you know, it's what you think you know that can hurt you…