Macro
The Fog of war (uncertainty)
“The cockroach theorem is, in the final analysis, a theorem about measurement. A system that cannot accurately measure its own
6 min read
“The cockroach theorem is, in the final analysis, a theorem about measurement. A system that cannot accurately measure its own liabilities will eventually be measured by someone else, and the measurement will arrive at the worst possible time.”
Shanaka Anslem Perera, Substack, 27 Feb, 2026
My first considered reaction to the US-Iran invasion is not to try to catch a falling knife this early in the fog of war and uncertainty.
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Macro
Calibrate & recalibrate
Volatility, uncertainty, and risk are all necessary but not sufficient conditions for generating cash-plus returns from investments. Too many investors
Macro
All that glitters…
This update consolidates our thesis for owning GOLD exposures and our recommendations for portfolios into one place. Over recent years,
Macro
“Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
This note highlights many economic indicators that are flashing warning signs for history-aware investors. A thorough examination of history reveals
Macro
Hold the line… weigh the arguments.
Hold the line is a military idiomatic expression meaning to stand firm in your position despite pressure or challenges. One