Macro
The Fog of war (uncertainty)
“The cockroach theorem is, in the final analysis, a theorem about measurement. A system that cannot accurately measure its own
23 articles
Macro
The Fog of war (uncertainty)
“The cockroach theorem is, in the final analysis, a theorem about measurement. A system that cannot accurately measure its own
Macro
Calibrate & recalibrate
Volatility, uncertainty, and risk are all necessary but not sufficient conditions for generating cash-plus returns from investments. Too many investors
The Next Wave…
As was well-flagged over the past weeks by Repo market activity, the Active Treasury Issuance (ATI)* of government debt, combined
Macro
All that glitters…
This update consolidates our thesis for owning GOLD exposures and our recommendations for portfolios into one place. Over recent years,
Macro
“Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
This note highlights many economic indicators that are flashing warning signs for history-aware investors. A thorough examination of history reveals
A camel’s back waiting for a straw
This update is brought to you by Occam’s razor. * A myriad of market valuation metrics all point to a
Momentum gathering…
These last few weeks, marking the beginning of Summer holidays in the Northern Hemisphere, have seen several significant macro and
Hard Data -> Hard Assets
* The disconnect between financial market pricing and the incoming (and forward-looking) data on US employment, business capital expenditures, credit and
Macro
Hold the line… weigh the arguments.
Hold the line is a military idiomatic expression meaning to stand firm in your position despite pressure or challenges. One
Macro
Inching towards a new (world?) order
Like many based in the Southern Hemisphere, I have spent too many hours since January 21 not sleeping and keeping
IN THE EYE OF THE (expected) STORM
* You are all very well aware of the volatility of the last weeks and days. * There are plenty of statistics
RINGING THE BELL
You know my views on the disconnect between financial asset pricing based on the crowd's recency bias of