Hold the line… weigh the arguments.

Hold the line is a military idiomatic expression meaning to stand firm in your position despite pressure or challenges.

One of the many eclectic podcasts I listen to each week includes behavioural lessons (including their application to corporate behaviour) from former military or intelligence personnel.

As investors, this courage of convictions, an ability to stand outside of the investor crowd, must be constantly weighed up against the ever-flowing signals [and noise] that we as investors hear, see and observe on a daily basis; from a wide variety of self-interested (and important to recognise conflicted) providers.

The ability to change one's mind when the facts change is a flexible and humble characteristic that is paramount to successful investing. But so too is the cognitive dissonance and courage to stand firm in portfolio positioning when everyone around you is running towards what you have allocated higher probabilities to the real critical investing risk scenario; permanent destruction of capital over a tax-effective investing horizon.

It is a constant balancing act of weighing the arguments for and against the current risks of inflation, growth, market stock and flows, as well as the implied assumptions in prices and their implications for financial asset valuations. Measured all on your own personal wealth tolerance scales.

The current crowd believes in a recency bias that multiple interest rate cuts will create a FED PUT to support equity valuations.

We believe that when interest rates are cut further, it will be like bringing a knife to a gunfight.